WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:07.840 Somebody on X dared people to name one new job AI is supposed to create. The post got almost a thousand replies. 00:00:07.840 --> 00:00:08.800 Any good ones? 00:00:08.800 --> 00:00:11.280 I did not read a thousand replies, John. 00:00:11.280 --> 00:00:11.920 Fair. 00:00:11.920 --> 00:00:13.600 But I've got one of my own. 00:00:13.600 --> 00:00:14.080 Go. 00:00:14.080 --> 00:00:16.560 The person who checks what the AI did. 00:00:16.560 --> 00:00:18.240 Okay. That one's real. 00:00:18.240 --> 00:00:26.560 Not the AI. Not the person who bought the AI. The person who has to look at what it wrote and go, no. We are not sending that. 00:00:26.560 --> 00:00:28.800 You just wrote the job posting. 00:00:28.800 --> 00:00:34.000 Is it a job, though? Or is it a chore somebody dumps on you at four on a Friday? 00:00:34.000 --> 00:00:35.360 Depends who's paying for it. 00:00:35.360 --> 00:00:37.360 Right. So does it pay? 00:00:37.360 --> 00:00:38.800 Ask me after the episode. 00:00:38.800 --> 00:00:40.560 That is not an answer. 00:00:40.560 --> 00:00:42.000 It's a promise to answer. 00:00:42.000 --> 00:00:43.600 I'm writing that down. 00:00:55.396 --> 00:01:06.436 This is After the Demo. I'm John Arndt. I run about fifteen small software products out of Sacramento, most of them built and run with AI agents, plus an AI consulting practice. 00:01:06.436 --> 00:01:07.316 And I'm Kate. 00:01:07.316 --> 00:01:16.436 So there's an outplacement firm that counts announced layoffs in the U.S. every month. And in their count, AI is the reason companies have cited most this year. 00:01:16.436 --> 00:01:17.236 Cited. 00:01:17.236 --> 00:01:25.716 Cited. I'm going to keep saying cited. And California signed a law at the end of September that will make some employers say so right on the layoff notice. 00:01:25.716 --> 00:01:33.796 So if you run a business, you're wondering if everybody around you is about to swap their staff for software. And whether you're supposed to. 00:01:33.796 --> 00:01:35.556 And if you sell to businesses? 00:01:35.556 --> 00:01:40.436 Then one of your accounts posts a layoff. Do you email them? What do you even say? 00:01:40.436 --> 00:01:42.116 That one we're going to fight about. 00:01:42.116 --> 00:01:50.836 Oh, we are. Also, how much to believe the reason a company gives. And when a sales team should just not hit send. 00:01:50.836 --> 00:01:56.969 And one rule. Every time he says the word signal today, I'm going to ask him what he'd actually send. 00:01:56.969 --> 00:01:58.636 That's going to come up. 00:01:58.636 --> 00:01:59.636 I know it is. 00:01:59.636 --> 00:02:03.556 Start with the headline, because the number checks out and the word doesn't. 00:02:06.856 --> 00:02:08.856 Okay. I want to play a game. 00:02:08.856 --> 00:02:09.896 Oh no. 00:02:09.896 --> 00:02:13.496 I read the headline. You read the count. Headline first. 00:02:13.496 --> 00:02:14.136 Go. 00:02:14.136 --> 00:02:25.416 Watcher Guru. Huge account on X, about five million followers. Posted this month, quote, IMF predicts AI will take over forty percent of all jobs. 00:02:25.416 --> 00:02:26.216 Mm. 00:02:26.216 --> 00:02:30.536 No link, no source. Forty percent of all jobs. 00:02:30.536 --> 00:02:40.376 Okay. Count. Same day, according to the news reports, the head of the IMF was on a panel about AI and jobs. The IMF and World Bank meetings, in Bangkok. 00:02:40.376 --> 00:02:46.936 Oh. So there was a real thing. Okay, I was ready to be mad at the post. Now I don't know who I'm mad at. 00:02:46.936 --> 00:02:56.936 Stay mad. Just hold it a second. The number in the reports is about forty percent of jobs worldwide affected by AI. In rich countries, as high as sixty. 00:02:56.936 --> 00:03:00.056 Wait. Sixty? So the post undersold it? 00:03:00.056 --> 00:03:09.496 Hold on. Affected. The reports spell out what that means. Jobs that get helped, jobs that get downgraded, and jobs that get eliminated. All in the same forty. 00:03:09.496 --> 00:03:12.776 So she did say forty percent. The post is right. 00:03:12.776 --> 00:03:14.936 The number's right. The verb isn't. 00:03:14.936 --> 00:03:17.016 Explain the verb thing like I'm driving. 00:03:17.016 --> 00:03:28.856 Take over is the post's word. The jobs AI helps are counted in that forty. Say AI makes a bookkeeper faster. In the reports, that job is affected. In the post, it got taken over. 00:03:28.856 --> 00:03:32.696 So the post says take over, and her forty includes helped. 00:03:32.696 --> 00:03:38.696 Same number, different verb. I can't tell you where the post got it. But take over isn't the word in the reports. 00:03:38.696 --> 00:03:43.256 Poor bookkeeper. Got faster and got fired in the same post. 00:03:43.256 --> 00:03:48.456 And she called it, quote, a slow-moving tsunami. Which is a lot less fun to put in a headline. 00:03:48.456 --> 00:03:51.576 A slow tsunami is still a tsunami, John. 00:03:51.576 --> 00:03:59.622 It is. But slow is the word that didn't make the post. And the forty isn't even new. The IMF first put it out in January twenty twenty-four. 00:03:59.622 --> 00:04:02.256 Twenty twenty-four? This is a rerun? 00:04:02.256 --> 00:04:18.136 Same person, in a blog post. Back then the word was, quote, exposed. Almost forty percent of jobs worldwide. And in rich countries, roughly half of the exposed ones, quote, may benefit. The other half, it said, could see AI take over key tasks. 00:04:18.136 --> 00:04:20.376 Exposed. Like a pipe in winter. 00:04:20.376 --> 00:04:23.496 Sure. Some pipes are fine. Some aren't. 00:04:23.496 --> 00:04:29.136 Okay. Round two. Headline. AI is taking all the jobs. Count. 00:04:29.136 --> 00:04:42.856 Challenger, Gray and Christmas. They're an outplacement firm, and they count announced job cuts every month. Their September report came out October first. About forty-three thousand announced cuts in September. Down eighteen percent from August. 00:04:42.856 --> 00:04:44.496 Down is good? 00:04:44.496 --> 00:04:45.576 Down is down. 00:04:45.576 --> 00:04:49.336 That's not an answer either. You're collecting those today. 00:04:49.336 --> 00:04:55.256 It's a careful answer. One month, down from the month before. I'm not calling it a trend. 00:04:55.256 --> 00:04:57.416 Fine. Where's AI in it? 00:04:57.416 --> 00:05:03.976 So far this year, AI is the most cited reason in their count. About a hundred twenty thousand cuts. Roughly one in five. 00:05:03.976 --> 00:05:07.336 One in five. Okay, that's not nothing. 00:05:07.336 --> 00:05:13.176 But in September alone, AI was cited for about four thousand. It was the fifth most cited reason that month. 00:05:13.176 --> 00:05:20.496 Wait. Top reason for the year, and fifth this month? How does that, okay, which one am I supposed to believe? 00:05:20.496 --> 00:05:29.216 Both. A big year, and a quieter month. And in both cases it's the reason the company gave when it announced the cuts. Challenger tallies what the companies say. 00:05:29.216 --> 00:05:30.936 So it's the company's word. 00:05:30.936 --> 00:05:32.936 Their word. Round three? 00:05:32.936 --> 00:05:36.696 Round three. Headline. Everybody's getting replaced. 00:05:36.696 --> 00:05:44.456 The government's September jobs report came out the next day. Employers added twenty-nine thousand jobs. The forecast was about ninety thousand. 00:05:44.456 --> 00:05:45.256 Oof. 00:05:45.256 --> 00:05:51.256 Unemployment went up to four point two percent. And July got revised to a loss. Ten thousand jobs. 00:05:51.256 --> 00:05:53.936 So everybody's just standing in the doorway. 00:05:53.936 --> 00:05:55.576 For September, pretty much. 00:05:55.576 --> 00:05:58.216 That's a weird look for a robot takeover. 00:05:58.216 --> 00:06:04.936 And Andy Challenger, whose firm does the count, put it in one line. Quote, companies are in a wait-and-see period right now. 00:06:04.936 --> 00:06:10.816 Okay, but which is it? Is it AI, or is it the economy wearing an AI costume? 00:06:10.816 --> 00:06:12.216 That's good. 00:06:12.216 --> 00:06:14.376 I know it's good. Answer it. 00:06:14.376 --> 00:06:19.976 Probably some of each. And the count can't tell you which, because the reason on the count is the reason the company gave. 00:06:19.976 --> 00:06:21.136 That's a dodge. 00:06:21.136 --> 00:06:29.216 It's the honest version. What I'll stand behind is the shape. Cuts in September, down from August. Hiring, well under what people expected. 00:06:29.216 --> 00:06:30.776 And if you're selling into that? 00:06:30.776 --> 00:06:35.923 My guess, and it's a guess, is longer decisions, and buyers who want proof before they move. 00:06:35.923 --> 00:06:39.696 You sell software. Of course you think buyers want proof. 00:06:39.696 --> 00:06:44.616 Guilty. But wait-and-see isn't my line. That's from the firm that counts layoffs for a living. 00:06:44.485 --> 00:06:48.325 Okay. So the reason is whatever they say it is. 00:06:48.325 --> 00:06:49.525 In the count, yeah. 00:06:49.525 --> 00:06:56.085 Then let's read one. A company said out loud this month that its layoffs are not driven by AI efficiencies. 00:06:56.085 --> 00:06:56.885 HubSpot. 00:07:01.701 --> 00:07:06.341 HubSpot. Okay, who are they, for anybody who's never logged into it? 00:07:06.341 --> 00:07:17.301 Software company out of Cambridge, Massachusetts. Businesses use their platform for marketing, sales and customer service. They're cutting nearly six hundred sixty jobs. About seven percent of their people. 00:07:17.301 --> 00:07:18.501 And they said why. 00:07:18.501 --> 00:07:29.541 The CEO sent a memo to staff. They're reorganizing their product teams around customer outcomes, instead of around their separate products. They call those Hubs. And they're taking out some layers of management. 00:07:29.541 --> 00:07:30.581 What's a Hub? 00:07:30.581 --> 00:07:33.061 Their separate products. That's their word for them. 00:07:33.061 --> 00:07:38.741 Okay. Before you read me the memo, let me guess. They're very excited about the future. 00:07:38.741 --> 00:07:46.661 Probably somewhere in there. But the memo has a line in it I didn't expect. Quote, this is not driven by AI-related efficiencies. 00:07:46.661 --> 00:07:47.301 Huh. 00:07:47.301 --> 00:07:51.861 And the CEO also called it, quote, not simply a cost-cutting exercise. 00:07:51.861 --> 00:07:53.541 Okay. I'll take that. 00:07:53.541 --> 00:07:54.341 Take it how? 00:07:54.341 --> 00:08:05.061 I believe them. They wrote it down. In the one year when AI is the easiest excuse there is, they went out of their way to say the cuts aren't driven by AI efficiencies. 00:08:05.061 --> 00:08:06.981 Okay, let me argue the other side. 00:08:06.981 --> 00:08:11.701 Wait. This is weird. I'm usually the one who doesn't believe the tech company. 00:08:11.701 --> 00:08:13.461 Today you're the believer. 00:08:13.461 --> 00:08:18.021 Today I'm the believer. They took the costume off. Go ahead. 00:08:18.021 --> 00:08:30.821 Look at what they're doing, though. Fewer layers. Teams built around what the customer gets, instead of around the product. And the memo talks about moving from building software that helps customers grow, toward delivering outcomes for them with AI. 00:08:30.821 --> 00:08:32.661 Okay, but that's the 00:08:32.661 --> 00:08:39.461 Hang on, one more. One of the write-ups summed it up as reorganizing, quote, to align with its AI strategy. 00:08:39.461 --> 00:08:45.061 So AI's in the plan. Even though they said the cuts aren't driven by AI efficiencies. 00:08:45.061 --> 00:08:54.021 Both can be true. Fewer layers, teams built around outcomes. That might just be what a company looks like now, even if no single tool replaced a single person. 00:08:54.021 --> 00:08:56.341 So they're wrong about their own company? 00:08:56.341 --> 00:09:00.021 No. I'm saying you can't tell from a memo. And neither can I. 00:09:00.021 --> 00:09:02.901 I can tell from a memo. That's what memos are for. 00:09:02.901 --> 00:09:04.901 That's what they're for in theory. 00:09:04.901 --> 00:09:08.261 You're very cynical for a man whose whole life is software. 00:09:08.261 --> 00:09:09.621 That's how I got cynical. 00:09:09.621 --> 00:09:11.381 Okay, what else is in it? 00:09:11.381 --> 00:09:16.741 I'll give you one more for your side. Quote, customers don't think in Hubs and features. 00:09:16.741 --> 00:09:23.141 See, that's a normal sentence. Nobody thinks in features. You think, did the thing get done. 00:09:23.141 --> 00:09:27.861 And their board approved the plan on October first, and they said their forecast for the year stands. 00:09:27.861 --> 00:09:33.301 So the year's on track, and they're reorganizing anyway. That sounds like a company that means it. 00:09:33.301 --> 00:09:36.981 Or a company that's planning ahead. I still can't tell from here. 00:09:36.981 --> 00:09:40.341 And you still want to read the memo against the memo. 00:09:40.341 --> 00:09:57.941 There's a bigger version of that argument going around. An AI news account, kimmonismus, about a hundred fifty thousand followers, posted this month that he doesn't believe AI will necessarily create new jobs. He thinks more jobs will be replaced than created. And he said, quote, this needs to be discussed. 00:09:57.941 --> 00:09:59.141 What set him off? 00:09:59.141 --> 00:10:01.621 A chart about call centers. Different episode. 00:10:01.621 --> 00:10:03.381 And that's whose side you're on? 00:10:03.381 --> 00:10:09.141 No. He's giving his opinion. So am I. He even says it needs discussing, which, fair. 00:10:09.141 --> 00:10:10.981 Well. We're discussing it. 00:10:10.981 --> 00:10:11.621 We are. 00:10:11.621 --> 00:10:17.621 Okay, one question. If HubSpot had written, this is because of AI. Would you believe that? 00:10:17.621 --> 00:10:19.701 No. 00:10:19.701 --> 00:10:20.421 No? 00:10:20.421 --> 00:10:23.541 No. I'd say, show me what the AI is doing. 00:10:23.541 --> 00:10:27.701 So a costume's a costume. On or off, it's what they told you. 00:10:27.701 --> 00:10:34.501 Yeah. You got me. If I won't believe the AI version on their word, I don't get to throw out the other version on a hunch. 00:10:34.501 --> 00:10:35.381 Thank you. 00:10:35.381 --> 00:10:42.021 So where I land. What a company says about itself is their explanation. What you can check is the evidence. 00:10:42.021 --> 00:10:43.861 And that goes for everybody. 00:10:43.861 --> 00:10:48.421 Everybody. HubSpot, every company in that Challenger count, all of them. 00:10:48.421 --> 00:10:53.621 Okay, so what? Say you run a business. Why do you care about somebody else's memo? 00:10:53.621 --> 00:11:01.461 If you run your business on a platform like this, read the explanation as an explanation. It's what they're telling you. You don't have to decode it. 00:11:01.461 --> 00:11:03.701 You just spent five minutes decoding it. 00:11:03.701 --> 00:11:05.941 And got nowhere. That's my point. 00:11:05.941 --> 00:11:06.981 And if you sell? 00:11:06.981 --> 00:11:15.221 Then every account you have writes memos like this one. Some say AI, some say not AI. Either way it's their story about themselves. 00:11:15.221 --> 00:11:19.381 Which you're allowed to read. You just don't get to treat it like the whole story. 00:11:19.381 --> 00:11:20.781 That's better than how I said it. 00:11:20.781 --> 00:11:23.141 I've been saying things better than you all day. 00:11:23.141 --> 00:11:24.421 It's been a long day. 00:11:24.310 --> 00:11:32.070 It's been ten minutes, John. Anyway. In California, a memo won't be the end of it. There's going to be a label. 00:11:32.070 --> 00:11:33.990 Starting in twenty twenty-seven. 00:11:38.814 --> 00:11:43.694 Okay. I'm going to ask what every owner listening is asking. Short answers. 00:11:43.694 --> 00:11:44.734 I can do short. 00:11:44.734 --> 00:11:47.134 What did California actually pass? 00:11:47.134 --> 00:11:55.214 A bill called SB nine fifty-one, signed September thirtieth. It adds to the state's layoff notice law. People call it the WARN law. 00:11:55.214 --> 00:11:56.894 And it does what? 00:11:56.894 --> 00:12:08.254 Starting January first, twenty twenty-seven, if a covered layoff is caused, quote, in whole or in substantial part, by AI or other automated technology, the notice has to say so. At the top. 00:12:08.254 --> 00:12:09.374 Say so how? 00:12:09.374 --> 00:12:13.454 There's an exact heading. This notice is for a technology displacement. 00:12:13.454 --> 00:12:14.414 Read it again. 00:12:14.414 --> 00:12:17.134 This notice is for a technology displacement. 00:12:17.134 --> 00:12:20.414 Cheerful. And that's the first line? Before anything else? 00:12:20.414 --> 00:12:28.254 At the top. That's the point of it. Then it has to list the job functions being automated, and the kind of technology, plus the usual stuff, like how many 00:12:28.254 --> 00:12:30.134 That's not a short answer. 00:12:30.134 --> 00:12:35.054 It's short for a law. How many workers, what roles, where. Done. 00:12:35.054 --> 00:12:38.014 Okay. Who has to do it? Say you run a small shop. 00:12:38.014 --> 00:12:47.854 Depends on your size. The thresholds didn't change. Workplaces with seventy-five or more employees. Layoffs of fifty or more people within thirty days. Sixty days' notice. 00:12:47.854 --> 00:12:49.934 What counts as AI causing it? 00:12:49.934 --> 00:12:52.134 In whole or in substantial part. 00:12:52.134 --> 00:12:54.214 And substantial part means? 00:12:54.214 --> 00:12:59.894 The law doesn't define it. Two employment law firms wrote it up, and both of them said so in plain words. 00:12:59.894 --> 00:13:01.854 Okay. New job for my list. 00:13:01.854 --> 00:13:02.974 Oh, here we go. 00:13:02.974 --> 00:13:06.334 The person who decides what substantial part means. 00:13:06.334 --> 00:13:08.574 That job exists. It's called a lawyer. 00:13:08.574 --> 00:13:10.574 Doesn't count. It has to be new. 00:13:10.574 --> 00:13:14.174 Lawyers have been deciding what words mean for a long time. 00:13:14.174 --> 00:13:20.534 Which is exactly why it doesn't count. Next. What stops a company from just not saying AI? 00:13:20.534 --> 00:13:22.654 The notice says what the company says. 00:13:22.654 --> 00:13:23.494 That's it? 00:13:23.494 --> 00:13:30.054 That's what I can tell you. I'm not going to guess what any company will do. The label is the company's own answer, same as the memo. 00:13:30.054 --> 00:13:31.974 The costume, written down. 00:13:31.974 --> 00:13:33.294 Pretty much. 00:13:33.294 --> 00:13:34.494 Anything else coming? 00:13:34.494 --> 00:13:40.494 One more, signed the same day. SB nine forty-seven. It's called the No Robo Bosses Act. 00:13:40.494 --> 00:13:42.254 That's actually what it's called? 00:13:42.254 --> 00:13:55.854 That's what it's called. An employer can't rely only on an automated system to discipline or fire somebody. A person has to check the decision against other evidence, and the worker has to be told. That one starts July first, twenty twenty-seven. 00:13:55.854 --> 00:14:01.534 Wait. A person has to check what the automated system decided? That's my job one again. 00:14:01.534 --> 00:14:03.374 It keeps showing up. 00:14:03.374 --> 00:14:05.854 Okay. And if you're not in California? 00:14:05.854 --> 00:14:12.574 There's a federal layoff notice law too. Sixty days' notice for covered employers. And the rules vary by state. 00:14:12.574 --> 00:14:14.574 So what does somebody do with that? 00:14:14.574 --> 00:14:19.134 If you're anywhere close to those numbers, talk to your lawyer. Not a podcast. 00:14:19.134 --> 00:14:20.974 Very responsible. 00:14:20.974 --> 00:14:25.854 I try. I can tell you what the law says. I can't tell you what it means for your company. 00:14:25.854 --> 00:14:29.614 Fine. Not a podcast. Does anybody add these up? 00:14:29.614 --> 00:14:37.054 In California, the state's employment department has to publish summaries, including a quarterly statewide summary of technology displacements. 00:14:37.054 --> 00:14:43.614 Okay, slow down for a second. Those are big numbers. Seventy-five people at one workplace. 00:14:43.614 --> 00:14:47.134 They are. And if you're near them, you know what I'm going to say. 00:14:47.134 --> 00:14:52.534 Lawyer. So why did we just spend a segment on it? That's a big company problem. 00:14:52.534 --> 00:14:55.854 It is. Is a big company one of your customers? 00:14:55.854 --> 00:14:56.654 Huh. 00:14:56.654 --> 00:15:04.974 If you sell to companies that size, some of them may file one of these. The notices already exist. The AI label gets added in twenty twenty-seven. 00:15:04.974 --> 00:15:10.374 Okay, but how would a salesperson even see one? Nobody reads state filings for fun. 00:15:10.374 --> 00:15:21.454 They're public. States post them, usually before the press covers the layoff. A notice gives you the employer, the location, the headcount and the date it takes effect. Not which team got cut. 00:15:21.454 --> 00:15:23.614 Except the California AI ones. 00:15:23.614 --> 00:15:36.454 Right, from twenty twenty-seven those have to list the functions. Which is a lot more than you get today. And remember the thresholds. Plenty of cuts never produce a notice at all, so no notice doesn't prove there was no layoff. 00:15:36.454 --> 00:15:40.014 So somebody's sitting there refreshing a state website all day? 00:15:40.014 --> 00:15:52.267 Somebody could. Intakra, the sales tool I run, does it for the companies a team brings it. It watches those notices along with other public sources, and when something real happens, it sends the proof, with the date and the link. 00:15:52.267 --> 00:15:58.294 Hang on. So there's a list of who just laid people off, and your tool hands it to salespeople. 00:15:58.294 --> 00:16:02.174 Only for the companies a team already sells to. And it's public. 00:16:02.174 --> 00:16:05.614 Public's not my question. That's a little ghoulish, John. 00:16:05.614 --> 00:16:07.374 Hold that. That's the next fight. 00:16:07.248 --> 00:16:08.928 Oh, I'm holding it. 00:16:13.995 --> 00:16:16.075 Okay. I'm going to defend it. 00:16:16.075 --> 00:16:17.675 The ghoulish list. 00:16:17.675 --> 00:16:25.755 The notice. It's public, it's dated, it's real. A company filed a piece of paper with the state. That's about as clean a signal as you get. 00:16:25.755 --> 00:16:27.355 Signal. You said it. 00:16:27.355 --> 00:16:28.795 I said it. 00:16:28.795 --> 00:16:39.995 Told you at the top. Every time you say signal, I ask what you'd actually send. So write it. Out loud. Say it's a two hundred person company, and I'm the VP whose team just got cut. 00:16:39.995 --> 00:16:49.995 Fine. Hi. Saw the news about the changes at your company. A lot of teams in your spot are looking to do more with less, and our tool helps with exactly that. Worth a quick call? 00:16:49.995 --> 00:16:50.955 Wow. 00:16:50.955 --> 00:16:51.755 It's short. 00:16:51.755 --> 00:17:02.715 Short's not the problem. I'm the VP. I spent this week walking people I hired out to the parking lot. And do more with less is the line I'm going to remember. With your company's name on it. 00:17:02.715 --> 00:17:05.835 That's, okay. That's a bad email. 00:17:05.835 --> 00:17:07.995 That's the email a lot of people would send. 00:17:07.995 --> 00:17:10.315 In my defense, you gave me ten seconds. 00:17:10.315 --> 00:17:11.995 The VP gets about two. 00:17:11.995 --> 00:17:15.675 Probably. Okay, but bad email, good signal. 00:17:15.675 --> 00:17:16.555 That's twice. 00:17:16.555 --> 00:17:20.635 Good, uh, notice. The notice is still real. 00:17:20.635 --> 00:17:23.355 Is it? What does the notice actually prove? 00:17:23.355 --> 00:17:24.715 That they're laying people off. 00:17:24.715 --> 00:17:29.675 That the layoff happened. That's one thing. You want it to prove they're about to buy something. 00:17:29.675 --> 00:17:34.395 My bet is a company that just cut people is often looking for a way to get the same work done. 00:17:34.395 --> 00:17:46.395 Often. Hold onto that word. And the reason on the notice? That's their own explanation. In California it'll say technology displacement or it won't, and substantial part isn't even defined. 00:17:46.395 --> 00:17:47.675 Right, but that's 00:17:47.675 --> 00:17:53.355 You said it last segment. The notice says what the company says. So you'd be writing to the label. 00:17:53.355 --> 00:17:53.915 Yeah. 00:17:53.915 --> 00:17:55.515 Don't pitch to the costume. 00:17:55.515 --> 00:17:57.835 Okay. Write that one down too. 00:17:57.835 --> 00:18:03.195 And say the label's perfect. The week of the cuts is the worst week of the year to be the cheerful vendor. 00:18:03.195 --> 00:18:04.155 Last defense. 00:18:04.155 --> 00:18:04.955 Let's hear it. 00:18:04.955 --> 00:18:12.635 Sometimes the work survives. The team's gone, but the job didn't go anywhere, and somebody inherited it. That person might actually want help. 00:18:12.635 --> 00:18:18.635 Then that somebody is having the worst month of their year. And your email is the second worst thing in their inbox. 00:18:18.635 --> 00:18:20.635 What's the first? 00:18:20.635 --> 00:18:21.835 The one from HR. 00:18:21.835 --> 00:18:24.075 Yeah. Okay. You win that one. 00:18:24.075 --> 00:18:26.395 Can I get that at the top? Like the notice? 00:18:26.395 --> 00:18:32.475 This notice is for a John displacement. And it's worse than that. I wrote this rule down myself. 00:18:32.475 --> 00:18:34.155 Oh, this I want to hear. 00:18:34.155 --> 00:18:42.315 In late September I did a quality review on the opportunity list behind the heads-ups I send. And I cut it down to the few that held up. Instead of padding it. 00:18:42.315 --> 00:18:44.875 Why not pad it? More is more. 00:18:44.875 --> 00:18:59.915 Because the rule is, a heads-up comes with the public proof, or it doesn't get sent. And there's a second rule that sits right next to it. A public event is proof of that event. What it usually leads to is written with usually or often, never as fact. 00:18:59.915 --> 00:19:03.755 Usually or often. Like your often, two minutes ago. 00:19:03.755 --> 00:19:05.755 Like my often. 00:19:05.755 --> 00:19:08.715 So the layoff is proof that there was a layoff. 00:19:08.715 --> 00:19:09.915 That's all it is. 00:19:09.915 --> 00:19:11.835 And the part where they want to buy your thing? 00:19:11.835 --> 00:19:17.275 Usually, at best. Nobody outside a company can see a buying decision. Including me. 00:19:17.275 --> 00:19:20.475 So you walked in here arguing against your own rule. 00:19:20.475 --> 00:19:21.195 I did. 00:19:21.195 --> 00:19:22.955 On your own show. 00:19:22.955 --> 00:19:35.115 And I have a page on exactly this question. It says never mention the layoff in a first email. And when the cuts hit every department, wait a quarter or two. And if the cut took out your buyer, don't reach out this quarter. 00:19:35.115 --> 00:19:38.075 And your email opened with saw the news. 00:19:38.075 --> 00:19:40.555 My email opened with the layoff. Yeah. 00:19:40.555 --> 00:19:46.035 Okay. So what do they do instead? Somebody listening has the list open right now. 00:19:46.035 --> 00:19:53.715 Honestly? Mostly wait. Or, if you've really got something useful for the people who are still there, offer it, and don't ask for anything back. 00:19:53.715 --> 00:19:55.675 And if you don't have anything useful? 00:19:55.675 --> 00:19:59.075 Then you wait. Sometimes the right email is no email. 00:19:59.075 --> 00:20:02.155 And if you do have something? What does that one sound like? 00:20:02.155 --> 00:20:10.235 My page says lead with the work, not the product. So it's about the work they still have to do, nothing about the news. And I'd leave off the ask. 00:20:10.235 --> 00:20:11.515 No ask at all? 00:20:11.515 --> 00:20:14.315 None. If it's useful, that's enough for now. 00:20:14.315 --> 00:20:17.555 That's a hard sell to a sales manager with a number to hit. 00:20:17.555 --> 00:20:27.315 It is. But proof that it happened doesn't give you permission to pitch it. You know what the layoff guy said at the top? Wait-and-see. Sometimes the one doing wait-and-see should be you. 00:20:27.315 --> 00:20:32.515 Look at you, quoting the layoff guy. Okay. List item three. 00:20:32.515 --> 00:20:33.315 Of course. 00:20:33.315 --> 00:20:36.275 The person who reads the email before it goes out. 00:20:36.275 --> 00:20:38.155 I needed that one ten minutes ago. 00:20:38.155 --> 00:20:39.075 Clearly. 00:20:39.075 --> 00:20:40.795 You didn't have to agree that fast. 00:20:40.679 --> 00:20:44.359 Okay. I've been sitting on the rest of my list long enough. 00:20:44.359 --> 00:20:45.399 I've noticed. 00:20:50.300 --> 00:21:02.700 So, the post from the top of the show. An account with about sixteen hundred followers, this month. Quote, everybody says that AI will create jobs we haven't imagined yet. Name me one. 00:21:02.700 --> 00:21:05.020 And almost a thousand replies. 00:21:05.020 --> 00:21:08.700 Which I still did not read. So you're getting my list. 00:21:08.700 --> 00:21:12.540 Hang on. Before your list, there's a guy who'd say you're wasting your breath. 00:21:12.540 --> 00:21:13.900 Can't wait. 00:21:13.900 --> 00:21:26.900 Rational Aussie posted this month that he hasn't heard one business owner say AI is great because their people can now do ten times more. But he's heard plenty of them say they'll soon be able to replace most of their staff with AI agents. 00:21:26.900 --> 00:21:29.900 Plenty of them? Who's he hanging out with? 00:21:29.900 --> 00:21:36.940 And his argument is that AI breaks the old link between producing more and hiring more. You used to grow, so you hired. 00:21:36.940 --> 00:21:37.740 Do you buy it? 00:21:37.740 --> 00:21:41.500 That's what he says he's heard. It's one person's read, not a survey. 00:21:41.500 --> 00:21:43.180 I do have a survey. 00:21:43.180 --> 00:21:44.300 You have a survey? 00:21:44.300 --> 00:21:47.660 I have two. I'm the data person now. Try to keep up. 00:21:47.660 --> 00:21:48.940 Okay. 00:21:48.940 --> 00:22:01.740 The New York Fed. A blog post on October eighth. They surveyed about five thousand two hundred small employers last fall. Seventy-seven percent of the owners they asked said AI hadn't changed their labor costs. 00:22:01.740 --> 00:22:03.580 Seventy-seven. Huh. 00:22:03.580 --> 00:22:10.060 And the owners using AI were more likely to expect their headcount to grow over the next year than the ones who weren't. 00:22:10.060 --> 00:22:12.540 That's the opposite of what Rational Aussie's hearing. 00:22:12.540 --> 00:22:26.620 I know. I'm enjoying it. Second survey, totally separate. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, run with Teneo Research, about thirty-seven hundred small businesses, this summer. About two thirds say they use AI. 00:22:26.620 --> 00:22:27.180 Okay. 00:22:27.180 --> 00:22:36.220 And of the ones using AI, forty-seven percent say it's creating jobs in their business today. Six percent say it's letting them cut headcount now. 00:22:36.220 --> 00:22:38.140 Wait. Forty-seven to six? 00:22:38.140 --> 00:22:44.940 Forty-seven to six. And now I get to play your game. Headline. Forty-seven percent. Count? 00:22:44.940 --> 00:22:52.620 Okay, I deserve that. Count. It's forty-seven percent of the ones using AI. Not all small businesses. 00:22:52.620 --> 00:22:53.580 I said that. 00:22:53.580 --> 00:23:02.313 You did say that. And the forty-seven combines two answers. One of them is, it's creating jobs now, but I expect it'll ultimately require fewer people. 00:23:02.313 --> 00:23:06.140 So some of the job creators think the jobs go away later. 00:23:06.140 --> 00:23:16.540 Some of them. I can't tell you how many. And the Fed's hiring numbers are expectations. The authors say so. Whether the AI users actually grow is left for future research. 00:23:16.540 --> 00:23:21.660 Fine. But expectations from five thousand owners still beat what one guy says he's heard. 00:23:21.660 --> 00:23:25.980 Yeah. That's fair. That's a bigger sample than one person's read. 00:23:25.980 --> 00:23:28.300 Thank you. I'm writing that one down too. 00:23:28.300 --> 00:23:30.060 You're going to need a bigger notebook. 00:23:30.060 --> 00:23:32.380 I have a very big notebook. 00:23:32.380 --> 00:23:39.100 Okay, but the same Fed post has a sting in it. Only thirty-one percent said AI had brought them more sales. 00:23:39.100 --> 00:23:42.620 So nobody's getting fired and nobody's getting rich. 00:23:42.620 --> 00:23:54.540 Not nobody. Six percent of the AI users in the Chamber survey said it's letting them cut headcount. And the Challenger count from the top was actual announced cuts. But mostly? In these surveys, about that. 00:23:54.540 --> 00:23:57.580 You've got one more. I can hear it. 00:23:57.580 --> 00:24:07.980 One more business group, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council, asked about five hundred owners in September. Sixteen percent said AI is eliminating more jobs than it creates. 00:24:07.980 --> 00:24:11.700 Sixteen. Not nothing. Not the internet either. 00:24:11.700 --> 00:24:13.500 Nowhere near the internet. 00:24:13.500 --> 00:24:15.180 Okay. Can I read my list now? 00:24:15.180 --> 00:24:16.060 Read the list. 00:24:16.060 --> 00:24:25.020 Job one, the one that keeps showing up. The person who checks what the AI did. Job two. The person who reads the email before it goes out. 00:24:25.020 --> 00:24:26.340 I needed that one today. 00:24:26.340 --> 00:24:32.580 You did. Job three, new one. The person who explains to a customer what the bot meant. 00:24:32.580 --> 00:24:33.980 Oh, that one I believe. 00:24:33.980 --> 00:24:43.260 Say you run a dental office. Somebody asks the chat thing on your website a question, it says something weird, and now a human has to call that person back and translate. 00:24:43.260 --> 00:24:44.860 And apologize a little. 00:24:44.860 --> 00:24:47.860 With feeling. Still not counting lawyers. 00:24:47.860 --> 00:24:49.620 You're still mad about the lawyers. 00:24:49.620 --> 00:24:53.100 The lawyers will be fine. The lawyers are always fine. 00:24:53.100 --> 00:24:58.860 They will. And for the record, I run most of my products with agents. So I'm in your job one. 00:24:58.860 --> 00:24:59.780 Does it pay? 00:24:59.780 --> 00:25:01.740 After the episode. We're almost there. 00:25:01.740 --> 00:25:03.180 You keep saying that. 00:25:03.180 --> 00:25:12.420 Okay. Something you can do before you're out of the truck. If you run the business and you're using AI, tell your team which tasks it's doing. Before somebody guesses. 00:25:12.420 --> 00:25:14.380 Because somebody will guess. 00:25:14.380 --> 00:25:16.940 Somebody always does. And if you sell? 00:25:16.940 --> 00:25:18.940 That one's mine. I'll do it this time. 00:25:19.223 --> 00:25:25.783 This week, if you sell to businesses, pull up your state's layoff notice list and check your top accounts against it. 00:25:25.783 --> 00:25:26.423 That's it? 00:25:26.423 --> 00:25:37.383 I'm not done. Before you send anything to one that's on it, write the email you'd want to get if it were your company. And if that email is no email, send nothing. 00:25:37.383 --> 00:25:44.663 And my rule, in one sentence. The notice is proof of what happened, and everything after that gets the word usually. 00:25:44.663 --> 00:25:45.543 Usually. 00:25:45.543 --> 00:25:47.063 I'll be saying it in my sleep. 00:25:47.063 --> 00:25:51.863 And send this to whoever runs your sales team. Before they find the layoff list on their own. 00:25:51.863 --> 00:25:54.343 Before they write my email. 00:25:54.343 --> 00:25:57.543 They'd do worse. That email was bad, John. 00:25:57.543 --> 00:26:04.823 It was bad. I've made my peace with it. Links are in the show notes. The studies, the California write-ups, and the posts we argued with. 00:26:04.823 --> 00:26:09.223 So. Back to the top. Does it pay? Checking what the AI did. 00:26:09.223 --> 00:26:11.383 It pays in the emails you don't send. 00:26:11.383 --> 00:26:12.503 That's not money. 00:26:12.503 --> 00:26:13.863 It's the kind you get to keep. 00:26:13.863 --> 00:26:16.743 You've been sitting on that one the whole episode. 00:26:16.743 --> 00:26:17.543 I have. 00:26:17.543 --> 00:26:18.503 It was fine. 00:26:18.503 --> 00:26:20.023 It was better than fine. 00:26:20.023 --> 00:26:22.423 That's After the Demo. I'm John Arndt. 00:26:22.423 --> 00:26:25.623 And I'm Kate. Check the count, not the costume.